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Methodology Notes
The statistics of knowing whether your edge is real
Edge validation, market-regime dependency, Monte Carlo, risk of ruin — the methods behind separating a genuine trading edge from a lucky streak.
29 Jun 2026
Win Rate Is the Most Misleading Stat in Trading
A high win rate feels like proof you're a good trader. It usually isn't. Here's why win rate hides more than it reveals, and what to look at instead.
27 Jun 2026
Is Your Trading Edge Real, or Just Survivorship Bias?
Most traders can't tell a genuine edge from a lucky streak. Here's a practical framework — sample size, expectancy, variance, and out-of-sample testing — for telling the difference.
25 Jun 2026
Why Your Backtest Lies: Regime-Dependency Explained
A profitable backtest can be a statistical illusion. Here's how market-regime dependency fools traders, and how to tell whether your edge is real or just a product of the conditions you happened to trade.